Berlin: According to German newspaper Bild, the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, is reportedly gearing up for a potential hybrid attack by Russia on NATO’s eastern flank as early as February 2024, intensifying existing tensions.
Bild references a confidential document from the German Ministry of Defense outlining a detailed “Path to Conflict” scenario between Russia and NATO, projecting a sequence of events leading to a full-scale conflict by the summer of 2025, with the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops.
Entitled “Alliance Defense 2025,” the scenario envisions Russia adding 200,000 troops to its army, followed by a spring offensive in Ukraine pushing back Ukrainian forces by June. The forecast includes a shift from covert to overt attacks, focusing on cyberattacks and hybrid warfare, particularly targeting the Baltic states, potentially leading to large-scale military exercises by Russia and Belarus.
Tensions peak in October with the anticipated deployment of Russian troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. By December 2024, the scenario foresees a “border conflict” and riots in the strategically crucial Suwalki Corridor in Eastern Europe.
In a critical phase during a U.S. presidential transition, the scenario suggests Russia, with Belarusian support, replicating its 2014 invasion tactics in Ukraine, this time on NATO territory. NATO, in response, is projected to decide on deterrence measures by May 2025. On a designated “day X,” NATO would mobilize 300,000 troops to the eastern flank, including 30,000 from the Bundeswehr.
The scenario concludes 30 days after “day X,” leaving uncertainty about whether NATO’s show of force would be sufficient to deter Russia.
This alarming scenario underscores rising concerns within NATO about Russia’s military ambitions and the potential escalation of the Ukraine conflict to a broader confrontation involving NATO forces. Bild’s report emphasizes the urgent need for strategic preparedness and vigilance among NATO members in the face of potential Russian aggression.
