Beijing: China’s soybean imports from the United States saw a notable 12% increase in March compared to the same period last year, driven by shipments secured in late 2024 by buyers anticipating a potential trade conflict between the U.S. and China. However, as Brazil enters its harvest season, the South American nation is expected to take the lead in global soybean supply.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 2.44 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. in March, making up nearly three-quarters of the country’s total soybean imports for the month. Analyst Rosa Wang of Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI pointed out that these March arrivals reflected “crushers’ precautionary purchases in Q4 last year amid concerns over renewed trade tensions should Trump return to office.”
Meanwhile, imports from Brazil saw a significant decline, dropping 69% in March to 0.95 million tons, which accounted for 27% of total soybean imports for the month. The slower shipments from Brazil were partly due to harvest delays in the country, contributing to a drop in overall soybean arrivals, which fell to their lowest level for the month since 2008.
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In the first quarter of 2025, China’s soybean imports from the U.S. surged by 62% year-on-year, reaching 11.6 million tons. In contrast, Brazil’s shipments to China for the same period totaled 4.5 million tons, marking a 55% drop from the previous year. As a result, Brazil’s market share in the first quarter stood at 26%, while the U.S. maintained a dominant 68% share, according to Reuters’ calculations.
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Looking ahead, analysts predict that China’s soybean imports could hit a record 31.3 million tons in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by the arrival of freshly harvested soybeans from Brazil’s bumper crop.
