As the 97th Academy Awards approach on Sunday, March 2, 2025, speculation is heating up about which films, filmmakers, and stars will take home the coveted golden statuettes. With the ceremony airing live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT and streaming on Hulu, the race is shaping up to be unpredictable yet thrilling. Below are predictions for some of the major categories, based on current buzz, critical reception, and awards season trends as of March 2, 2025. Note that these predictions reflect the fluid nature of the competition and are subject to last-minute shifts.
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Best Picture
The Best Picture race has been a rollercoaster this year, with no single film maintaining a clear lead throughout the season. Here are the frontrunners and my predictions:
Predicted Winner: “Anora”
Sean Baker’s “Anora,” distributed by Neon, has emerged as a strong contender after securing key wins at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA), Producers Guild Awards (PGA), Critics Choice Awards, and Writers Guild Awards (WGA). This combination has historically been a reliable predictor of Oscar success, with rare exceptions like “Brokeback Mountain.” Its fresh, contemporary storytelling and widespread goodwill could clinch it the top prize in a ranked-choice voting system.
Strong Challenger: “The Brutalist”
Brady Corbet’s ambitious historical epic has garnered significant support for its sweeping scope and artistic heft—classic Oscar bait. Its peak buzz came earlier in the season, but it remains a favorite among traditionalists who might shy away from “Anora’s” edgier tone.
Dark Horse: “Conclave”
Edward Berger’s “Conclave” gained momentum with a BAFTA win for Best Film and a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) ensemble award, signaling broad appeal among overlapping Academy voters. It could surprise if voters lean toward a more classical narrative.
Other Contenders: “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix), once a frontrunner with a record 13 nominations for a non-English-language film, has faded due to controversy surrounding star Karla Sofía Gascón’s past social media posts. “A Complete Unknown,” “Wicked,” and “Dune: Part Two” also remain in the mix but lack the same late-season push.
Who Should Win: “Nickel Boys” has been praised for its innovative first-person cinematography and emotional resonance, making it a critical darling that could deserve the win, though its smaller scale might limit its chances.
Best Director
Predicted Winner: Sean Baker (“Anora”)
Baker’s DGA win and the film’s strong showing across guilds make him the likely choice. His orchestration of a chaotic yet heartfelt story has won over voters.
Strong Challenger: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Corbet’s bold vision and the film’s epic scale could sway voters looking for a director who takes big swings.
Notable Mention: Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) might split votes with flashier contenders, despite his technical mastery.
Best Actor
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Brody has dominated critics’ awards and international honors like the Golden Globes, building a narrative as a veteran actor overdue for a second Oscar (he won in 2003 for “The Pianist” at age 29). His performance as a tortured architect is a standout.
Strong Challenger: Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)
Chalamet’s SAG win as Bob Dylan signals strong actor-branch support. At 29, a win would make him the youngest Best Actor ever, edging out Brody’s record by months.
Dark Horse: Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) has faded after losing at BAFTA, but his subtle intensity keeps him in contention.
Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Moore’s transformative role in the body-horror hit has her poised for a career-crowning moment at 62. Her Golden Globes win and lack of prior Oscar nods fuel a feel-good narrative, despite the film’s divisive genre.
Strong Challenger: Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
Madison’s breakout as a brash sex worker won her BAFTA’s Best Actress, and her youth (29) contrasts with Moore’s veteran status. She could surge in ranked-choice voting.
Notable Mention: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) are in the mix, but Moore and Madison lead the pack.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Culkin’s witty, heartfelt turn has swept precursor awards, making this category one of the most locked of the night.
Strong Challenger: Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Pearce’s SAG snub hasn’t dimmed his chances entirely, as his powerful performance keeps him competitive.
Dark Horse: Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) could sneak in with a late push.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Despite the film’s Best Picture fade, Saldaña’s emotional depth has kept her as the frontrunner, bolstered by broad support.
Strong Challenger: Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
Rossellini’s understated role could make history as one of the oldest winners in this category if she pulls off an upset.
Other Categories to Watch
Best Original Screenplay: “Anora” is favored for its sharp, original voice.
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave” or “Nickel Boys” could take it, with the latter’s WGA win giving it an edge.
Best Cinematography: “The Brutalist” or “Dune: Part Two” lead for their stunning visuals.
Best Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” is a safe bet.
Best Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two” is the likely winner over “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.”
Final Thoughts
This year’s Oscars promise suspense, with “Anora” holding a slight edge in a fractured Best Picture race. Standout performances from Brody, Moore, Culkin, and Saldaña seem poised to shine, while technical categories may favor big-budget spectacles like “Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked.” With final voting closed on February 18 and no clear juggernaut like last year’s “Oppenheimer,” the night could deliver surprises. Tune in to see how it all unfolds!
