Santiago: Fifteen years ago, on February 27, Chile experienced one of its deadliest natural disasters when an 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Concepción. The powerful tremor shook the ground for four minutes and triggered a tsunami that claimed 550 lives. It was the most devastating quake since the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, the strongest ever recorded globally, with a magnitude of 9.5.
Now, seismologists warn that Chile’s mineral-rich northern region could be the site of another major earthquake.
Growing Seismic Risks in the North
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer and the second-largest lithium producer, has its biggest copper mines and all of its lithium production concentrated in the north. Scientists believe this region is accumulating significant geological stress, increasing the likelihood of a major seismic event.
“Every 10 years, there’s a big event,” said Felipe Leyton, a seismologist at the University of Chile. He explained that certain areas of the country build up considerable stress along fault lines, making them more prone to earthquakes.
“This lets you see the potential for a big earthquake that lets us say in the short term, in seismic and geological terms, we’re expecting a big earthquake in the northern part of the country,” Leyton added.
The Ring of Fire and Chile’s Vulnerability
Chile’s geographical structure plays a crucial role in its seismic activity. The country stretches 4,300 km (2,672 miles) in length but has an average width of just 180 km (112 miles). It is situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a seismically active zone where multiple tectonic plates collide, generating frequent earthquakes and volcanic activity.
The Andes mountain range, which extends along Chile’s western border, is a direct result of the Nazca and South American tectonic plates converging. This tectonic movement is responsible for the country’s history of powerful earthquakes.
Dr. Mohama Ayaz, a geologist and geospatial engineer at the University of Santiago of Chile, emphasized the role of advanced monitoring systems in predicting seismic activity.
“We obviously can’t say exactly when, but we can anticipate them,” Ayaz said. “Earthquakes are the result of built-up stress, and that stress depends on the last time since the last seismic event.”
Also Read | Gunfire and Blasts Disrupt Congo Rebel Rally, Casualties Reported
An Earthquake Long Overdue?
Ayaz pointed out that the northern region has not experienced a major earthquake comparable to the one that struck southern Chile in 2010.
“So what we’re expecting in the short term is an earthquake in the north. We can’t say when, but we can wait for it,” he said.
With Chile’s critical mining sector concentrated in the north, a major earthquake could have significant economic and humanitarian consequences. While the exact timing remains uncertain, scientists are closely monitoring the region for signs of impending seismic activity.
