Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump deported 37,660 individuals in his first month in office, significantly lower than the monthly average of 57,000 removals and returns recorded in the final full year of Joe Biden’s administration, according to previously unpublished data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Despite this slower start, a senior Trump administration official and immigration experts anticipate a sharp rise in deportations in the coming months as Trump implements new measures to accelerate arrests and removals.
DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin suggested that the higher deportation numbers under Biden were “artificially high” due to increased levels of illegal immigration.
Trump campaigned on a hardline immigration policy, vowing to deport millions in what he called the most extensive deportation operation in U.S. history. However, early figures indicate that reaching or exceeding Biden-era deportation rates may be challenging, as the last full year of Biden’s administration saw a surge in illegal border crossings, facilitating removals.
Leadership Shake-Up and Future Deportation Plans
In a sign of internal adjustments, acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Caleb Vitello was reassigned last Friday due to what a Trump administration official and two sources described as unmet expectations.
Officials expect deportation efforts to gain momentum in the coming months, aided by agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, and Costa Rica to accept deportees from other nations. The U.S. military has already facilitated over a dozen deportation flights to Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Ecuador, Peru, and India.
The Trump administration has also transported Venezuelan migrants to the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay. Trump stated in late January that his administration would prepare to detain up to 30,000 migrants there, despite strong opposition from civil liberties organizations.
Adam Isacson, a security expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, noted that military-assisted deportations could expand, given the Pentagon’s vast budget and logistical capabilities.
Expanding Deportation Criteria
Trump’s administration is working to broaden arrest criteria for deportable migrants, including those without criminal records, and increase detentions of individuals with final deportation orders.
Last month, the Justice Department issued a memo allowing ICE officers to arrest migrants inside U.S. immigration courts, rolling back a Biden-era policy that restricted such operations.
On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department officially designated Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang and seven other criminal organizations as terrorist groups. Under U.S. immigration law, suspected gang members tied to these organizations could now face deportation.
The Trump administration is also leveraging resources from ICE’s investigative arm, the Justice Department, the IRS, and the State Department to assist with enforcement efforts.
Jessica Vaughan, policy director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for lower immigration levels, said these additional resources could be particularly useful in targeting businesses that employ undocumented workers and in executing deportation orders.
“Those are all more complex cases,” Vaughan said. “Worksite enforcement requires extensive planning and investigations, all of which take time.”
Arrest Trends and Capacity Constraints
During Trump’s first three weeks in office, ICE arrested approximately 14,000 people, according to border czar Tom Homan. That equates to an average of 667 arrests per day—double last year’s daily average but still far from the numbers required to reach Trump’s pledge of millions of deportations.
ICE arrests surged to between 800 and 1,200 per day in Trump’s first week but later declined as detention centers reached capacity and officers returned to their regular duties.
“It’s like turning a supertanker—it takes time,” Isacson said. “The civilian side of the U.S. government has limits on what it can do in the short term.”
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Data from DHS shows that in Trump’s first month, ICE doubled the number of arrests of individuals with criminal charges or convictions compared to the same period a year earlier.
However, a key challenge remains: limited detention space. ICE is currently detaining around 41,100 individuals, just short of its budgeted capacity of 41,500. Of these, approximately 19,000 were arrested by ICE, while around 22,000 were apprehended by U.S. border authorities.
Among those arrested by ICE, roughly 2,800 had no prior criminal record—up significantly from 858 in mid-January, before Trump took office.
Congressional Budget Debate
The Republican-led U.S. Senate recently passed a bill allocating $340 billion over four years for border security, deportations, energy deregulation, and increased military spending. However, GOP lawmakers remain divided on the next steps, as Trump insists that the funding be paired with tax cuts.
