In a striking demographic shift, global fertility rates have fallen from an average of five children per woman in 1950 to just 2.3 today, nearing a point below the replacement level required to sustain population growth. According to UN projections, the world population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s before experiencing an unprecedented decline.
Countries worldwide are racing to address this trend, deploying measures such as baby bonuses, expanded parental leave, and subsidized childcare. Despite these efforts, results have been limited, with many nations continuing to see birth rates drop well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In South Korea, for example, the fertility rate has plummeted to just 0.72—the lowest in the world—while Taiwan’s rate of 0.865 has led to the closure of numerous schools as classrooms sit empty.
Experts attribute the trend to various factors, including the rising cost of living, shifting societal norms around family, and growing climate concerns, which are reshaping attitudes toward parenthood. With many couples choosing to have fewer children or forgo parenthood altogether, some analysts suggest that this shift may be irreversible, marking the start of a historic population decline that could reshape societies and economies globally.
Key Points:
- Declining Global Fertility: Global fertility rates have dropped from five children per woman in 1950 to 2.3 today, nearing the critical replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population growth.
- Projected Population Peak: UN forecasts indicate the global population will peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s, after which it will begin to decline—the first such decrease in recorded history.
- Policy Interventions Falling Short: Governments are trying incentives like baby bonuses and free childcare to boost birth rates, but results have been limited.
- Record-Low Birth Rates in Asia: South Korea has the lowest birth rate globally at 0.72, and Taiwan’s 0.865 has led to school closures due to fewer children.
- Shifting Social and Environmental Factors: Rising living costs, evolving social norms, and climate concerns are influencing decisions about parenthood, suggesting that low birth rates may persist as part of a long-term trend.
