President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance has sparked discussions among Democrats about the possibility of replacing him as their candidate for the 2024 election. Speaking during a debate with Republican contender former President Donald Trump on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, Biden’s halting and disjointed manner, attributed by aides to a cold, has raised fresh concerns about his ability to serve another term.
Despite these concerns, Biden has secured the presumptive nomination, limiting options for a change in candidate. Following the debate, Biden reaffirmed his intention to stay in the race, but discussions about his continuation are reportedly ongoing.
David Axelrod, a former campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, commented on CNN, “He did get stronger as the debate went on, but by that time, I think the panic had set in. And I think you’re going to hear discussions — that I don’t know will lead to anything — but there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.”
Historical Precedent
Removing Biden from the Ticket
Removing Biden would be difficult, given that he faced minimal opposition in the primaries and secured 99% of the pledged delegates. Any challenger would need to announce their candidacy before the formal vote, risking a high-stakes party coup.
Decision Timeline
A decision must be made soon. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) planned to move up Biden’s nomination with a phoned-in roll call ahead of the convention to meet an August 7 ballot deadline in Ohio. Although the deadline has been extended, the DNC intends to proceed with the early roll call, making the August 19 convention a formality.
Post-Convention Scenario
If Biden steps down after the convention, the DNC members would decide his replacement. However, this would pose a logistical challenge, as ballots with Biden’s name may have already been printed. State laws vary on how votes for Biden would be counted if he is no longer the nominee, but they would likely go to his replacement when the Electoral College meets.
Potential Successors
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely successor, though not automatically. Other potential candidates include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. However, none of these candidates have polled significantly better against Trump than Biden, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of seven battleground states.
Financial Considerations
Modern presidential campaigns are expensive, and financial factors play a significant role. Biden’s campaign and the DNC had $212 million cash on hand at the end of May, which would be available to Harris if she took over the ticket. Any other candidate would need to start fundraising from scratch, adding to the $346 million already spent on Biden’s re-election campaign.
The discussions and decisions in the coming weeks will be crucial for the Democratic Party as they navigate these challenges leading up to the 2024 election.
