Hong Kong: The United States and China engaged in semi-official nuclear arms discussions in March for the first time in five years. According to American delegates present, Beijing reassured their U.S. counterparts that it would not resort to nuclear threats over Taiwan.
David Santoro, the U.S. organizer of the Track Two talks, reported that Chinese representatives affirmed their confidence in prevailing in a conventional conflict over Taiwan without nuclear involvement. The talks, held in a Shanghai hotel, involved former officials and scholars from both sides.
While the U.S. State Department acknowledged the talks’ potential benefits, it stressed the limitations of Track Two discussions compared to official government negotiations.
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The discussions took place amid strained U.S.-China relations, exacerbated by economic and geopolitical disagreements. Despite earlier Track One talks in November, formal negotiations on nuclear arms have stalled.
China’s nuclear arsenal expansion, estimated to increase significantly by 2030, includes advancements in submarines, hypersonic vehicles, and sea patrols, forming a comprehensive “nuclear triad”.
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Key points of discussion included China’s adherence to its no-first-use and minimal deterrence policies. Chinese delegates affirmed their commitment to these policies and disavowed any intention to achieve nuclear parity with the U.S.
The U.S. expressed concerns over China’s nuclear transparency and risk reduction proposals, highlighting Beijing’s refusal to engage substantively on these issues.
