New Delhi: India’s critical monsoon rains made an early appearance on the mainland, striking the southernmost Kerala coast a few days ahead of schedule, announced the national weather office on Thursday. This timely arrival augurs well for the agricultural sector, potentially leading to abundant harvests that could drive both farm and economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
Typically, the onset of summer rains is observed along the coastal regions of Kerala around June 1st, gradually enveloping the entire country by mid-July. This annual phenomenon kickstarts the cultivation of essential crops like rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.
The monsoon season holds paramount importance for India’s nearly $3.5 trillion economy, delivering approximately 70% of the rainfall required to irrigate farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. With almost half of India’s farmland relying solely on rainwater due to the absence of irrigation facilities, the significance of these seasonal rains cannot be overstated.
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In addition to sustaining agricultural activities, the monsoon’s timely arrival promises respite from the scorching heatwave that has gripped parts of the north and west, with temperatures soaring above 50 degrees Celsius (122°F).
According to forecasts by the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), June is expected to witness average rainfall, albeit with above-normal maximum temperatures. Projections suggest that this year’s monsoon rains are anticipated to be 106% of the long-term average.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as falling within the range of 96% to 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. The significance of sufficient rainfall is underscored by the repercussions of below-average rains experienced in 2023, which led to depleted reservoir levels and a decline in food production. In response, the government imposed restrictions on the export of essential commodities such as rice, wheat, sugar, and onions.
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The resumption of exports hinges upon the pace of production recovery in 2024, a feat achievable only with favorable monsoon rainfall. India’s status as the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar underscores the global implications of its agricultural output.
Furthermore, abundant rains hold the potential to mitigate food inflation, which has persistently remained above the central bank’s comfort level.
Adding to the optimism, the La Nina weather phenomenon, known to enhance rainfall in India, is forecasted to manifest between July and September, further bolstering hopes for a successful agricultural season.
