Seoul: Liberal politician Lee Jae-myung is projected to secure a decisive victory in South Korea’s snap presidential election, according to exit polls released after the close of voting. His expected win signals a dramatic shift in national politics following the ousting of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose controversial martial law decree sparked public outrage and led to his impeachment.
Exit polls conducted by national broadcasters KBS, MBC, and SBS placed Lee at 51.7%, significantly ahead of his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo, who polled at 39.3%. A separate JTBC poll showed similar margins, with Lee at 50.6% and Kim at 39.4%. Channel A’s projections also aligned with this outcome. Reuters noted that it has not independently verified these survey results.
The special election follows months of political upheaval triggered by Yoon’s December 2023 imposition of martial law—an act that provoked widespread condemnation and a parliamentary impeachment in December. His dismissal was confirmed by the Constitutional Court on April 4, cutting short his five-year term less than halfway through.
Lee had labeled the election as “judgment day”, casting it as a referendum not only on Yoon’s failed leadership but also on the conservative People Power Party, which he accused of standing by as democracy came under threat.
“I hope the issues surrounding martial law are addressed more clearly and transparently,” said Kim Yong-Hyun, a 40-year-old Seoul resident. “There are still many things that don’t make sense, and I’d like to see them properly resolved.”
Park Chan-dae, the Democratic Party’s acting leader, told KBS that while they were awaiting the official results, the exit polls clearly indicated public rejection of martial law and a demand for improved governance.
“I think people made a fiery judgment against the insurrection regime,” he said.
If confirmed, Lee’s victory would immediately make him president and commander-in-chief, as no transition is required. The National Election Commission is expected to certify the final result on Wednesday.
The election comes at a turbulent time, with the country’s economy under strain and its society sharply divided. Lee will face the daunting task of healing deep political fractures and reviving South Korea’s export-reliant economy, which has been buffeted by rising protectionism in key markets such as the United States.
Both candidates campaigned on economic reform, calling for an overhaul of South Korea’s decades-old political and economic structures. While Kim focused on deregulation and reducing labor tensions, Lee promised greater equity and targeted support for lower- and middle-income families.
Despite the emphasis on economic recovery and innovation, the specter of martial law loomed large over the campaign. Kim Moon-soo, who served as Yoon’s labor minister during the martial law crisis, attempted to paint Lee as a dangerous populist.
He referred to Lee as a “dictator” and accused the Democratic Party of becoming a “monster”, warning that if Lee wins, “nothing will stop them from working together to amend laws simply because they do not like them.”
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For many voters, the stakes were not only political but deeply personal.
“The economy has gotten so much worse since December 3, not just for me but I hear that from everybody,” said 81-year-old Kim Kwang-ma. “And we as a people have become so polarised… I wish we could come together so that Korea can develop again.”
Notably, this election marked the first in 18 years without any female presidential candidates. Gender issues, which dominated the 2022 election, received little attention this time.
“One thing I am a bit frustrated about with mainstream candidates whether Lee Jae-myung or other conservative candidates is they lack policy on women or minority groups,” said Kwon Seo-hyun, an 18-year-old university student and first-time voter who joined anti-Yoon protests after the martial law decree.
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Lee consistently held a strong lead in polls leading up to the election. A Gallup Korea survey published just before the vote put him ahead by 14 percentage points. Although Kim managed to close the gap somewhat after launching his campaign on May 12, it appeared insufficient to overturn Lee’s advantage.
Ballot counting began with machine sorting, followed by a triple-check process by election officials to ensure accuracy. While the timing of the final announcement remains uncertain, it is expected to mirror the 2022 election timeline, when Lee conceded to Yoon around 3 a.m. the day after the vote.
With the presidential office vacant since Yoon’s removal, the new president will be inaugurated and assume office immediately upon certification of the results.
