New Delhi – In a move that has reignited political debate and surprised both allies and critics, the BJP-led central government has announced the inclusion of caste enumeration in the upcoming decadal Census. The decision, long demanded by the Opposition, came not only after an 11-year silence but also at a moment of heightened national anxiety — just days after the deadly Pahalgam terror attack.
While the announcement fulfills a key political and social demand, it is the timing of it — April 30, in the immediate aftermath of the April 22 attack in Kashmir — that has fueled intense speculation. Was this a bold policy move long in the works, a calculated response to shifting electoral realities, or an attempt to manage headlines amid rising calls for retaliation?
The decision was taken during a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yet, the lack of official reasoning for the timing has only amplified theories surrounding the government’s motives.
Below, we examine four key theories that are dominating the national conversation.
1. Census Delay Couldn’t Wait: High-Stakes Planning for 2029
One of the more pragmatic explanations is bureaucratic urgency. The Census, delayed by over four years, is a critical precursor for several major political initiatives — especially the delimitation of constituencies and the implementation of 33% reservation for women in Parliament, both of which must be completed before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
With such a tight window, delaying the Census any further could disrupt these processes. As such, the caste enumeration announcement, many argue, was an operational necessity, and its timing coincidental to ongoing national security concerns.
2. Bihar Elections 2025: Securing the OBC Vote Bank
Another compelling theory links the caste census to the upcoming Bihar Assembly election, where caste dynamics dominate the political landscape. The announcement came just a day after Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat — whose 2015 remarks about revisiting reservations were seen as damaging to the BJP’s performance in that year’s Bihar election.
Since then, caste politics in Bihar have only intensified. Nitish Kumar’s caste survey and the Opposition’s demand to lift the 50% cap on reservations have made caste data a potent electoral issue. In 2020, the NDA lost 10% OBC/EBC support, while the Mahagathbandhan gained 7%.
The BJP, having felt the impact of OBC shifts in the 2024 general elections in UP and Maharashtra, may now be seeking to reclaim that base through a politically strategic caste census.
3. Diversion from Pahalgam: Managing Public Outrage?
While the public reels from the Pahalgam terror attack, the government faces rising expectations for a firm and decisive response. Critics, including political leaders from the Congress and AAP, suggest that the caste census announcement was intended to divert public attention from growing frustration over the delayed retaliation.
“The PM has been silent on the demand [for a caste census] for 11 years… suddenly, when the country was overwhelmed by the sorrow over Pahalgam, he announced the caste census… How can we take his announcement seriously? It is a headline management and diversionary tactic”, said Congress leader Jairam Ramesh.
AAP MP Sanjay Singh echoed the sentiment: “Terrorists challenged us on our own soil, and the government is trying to distract people by bringing up the caste census issue”.
The narrative suggests that the government sought a temporary shift in media focus, knowing that any real retaliation takes time to plan and execute.
4. Harnessing Nationalism to Soften Opposition to Caste Census
The fourth and perhaps most nuanced theory posits that the government deliberately paired the caste census announcement with a wave of nationalistic unity following the Pahalgam attack. The emotional surge, analysts argue, could buffer any potential backlash — especially from those wary of caste-based policies.
“They are expecting that whatever resentment they would have faced over the decision to conduct a caste census will get overshadowed by nationalism”, a senior journalist familiar with the BJP’s strategy told India Today Digital.
This theory assumes that the ruling party sought to neutralize potential upper-caste discontent by riding the current of patriotic fervor — emphasizing unity over division. With the Opposition celebrating the announcement as a win, the BJP may have sought to quietly disarm them while the national spotlight remained elsewhere.
A Calculated Move or Convenient Coincidence?
Though the BJP has long resisted caste enumeration, citing concerns over deepening social divisions, its decision now reflects a shift in political calculus. From realpolitik in Bihar to the need for a fresh narrative in the face of terror, the caste census announcement is as much about governance as it is about perception management.
Whether this move will pay off politically remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the timing of the announcement was no accident — and it has already reshaped the national conversation.
