New York: Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning about the state of the U.S. economy, stating that President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war has pushed the country to the brink of recession.
Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press, Dalio was asked whether the world’s largest economy could fall into a recession—typically defined as a sustained decline in economic output—due to recent escalations in trade tensions that have rocked global markets.
“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” said Dalio, who leads one of the world’s most influential hedge funds.
The White House’s shifting tariff policies have intensified market volatility, with the Trump administration imposing duties on goods from dozens of countries. However, the schedule for implementation has been erratic. While several nations received a 90-day reprieve, tariffs targeting Chinese goods remain on course.
Dalio criticized the unpredictable tariff strategy, saying it had been “very disruptive” and likened the tariffs’ effects to “throwing rocks into the production system.”
Beyond trade tensions, Dalio voiced broader concerns over mounting U.S. debt levels, the growing federal budget deficit, and escalating geopolitical conflicts.
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“We’re having profound changes in the world order… if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power… How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession,” he said.
Drawing parallels to historical economic crises, Dalio referenced the financial dislocations of 1971 and 2008. He cautioned that the current economic landscape could prove more damaging if these converging risks are not addressed simultaneously.
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“It could be more severe than those if these other matters simultaneously occur,” he warned.
Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associates nearly 50 years ago in Connecticut, oversees investments on behalf of 175 clients, including major pension funds, global foundations, and central banks.
