Tensions Rise as Trump Demands Mexico Honor 1944 Water Treaty

The 1944 treaty allows for some flexibility in times of drought, permitting Mexico to roll over any water shortfall into the next cycle.

Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a warning to Mexico, threatening economic sanctions and tariffs over what he claims is a violation of an 81-year-old water-sharing agreement. Trump accused Mexico of “stealing the water from Texas Farmers” by failing to meet its obligations under the 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty.

The treaty requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande to the United States every five years. With the current cycle ending in October, data from the International Boundary and Water Commission shows Mexico has sent less than 30% of the agreed amount.

“Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation,” Trump posted on Truth Social. He added, “My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!”

In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico is complying with the treaty “to the extent water is available” amid a historic drought lasting three years. She confirmed that Mexican officials had submitted a proposal to U.S. authorities on Wednesday to address the water shortfall and implement short-term measures. “I am sure, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached,” Sheinbaum wrote on X.

The 1944 treaty allows for some flexibility in times of drought, permitting Mexico to roll over any water shortfall into the next cycle. However, tensions remain high. The U.S. continues to deliver 1.5 million acre-feet of water annually to Mexico from the Colorado River under the same treaty, although recent volumes have decreased due to worsening drought conditions — a reduction also permitted by the agreement.

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Critics in the U.S. argue that Mexico’s internal water management issues — including infrastructure problems and rising demand from industries like cattle ranching and pecan farming — have led to chronic underdelivery. Texan politicians have warned that the ongoing water deficit is hurting local agriculture, particularly in drought-stricken areas.

Reuters reported that Mexico is preparing to send an additional 122,000 acre-feet of water and is exploring options to deliver another 81,000 acre-feet. Still, this combined amount would cover less than 40% of its total obligation under the treaty.

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Past efforts to fulfill treaty terms have sparked unrest in Mexico. In 2020, tensions boiled over at the Boquilla dam in Chihuahua, where Mexican National Guard forces clashed with local farmers resisting the water transfers to the U.S., leaving one protester dead.

As the October deadline nears, pressure is mounting from both sides of the border. U.S. officials worry that the dispute could spill into broader trade issues, especially with Trump signaling that tariffs and sanctions are on the table if no resolution is reached.

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