London: Russia’s daily oil exports from its western ports are projected to increase by approximately 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 1.97 million bpd in April, marking a 5% rise from March levels. The increase comes as seasonal domestic refinery maintenance temporarily reduces domestic processing capacity, outweighing production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, according to Reuters calculations based on data from three sources.
Data indicates that the combined exports and transit of Urals, Kazakh KEBCO, and Siberian Light crude from key Russian ports—Primorsk, Novorossiisk, and Ust-Luga—will see an uptick next month.
Improved Weather and Fleet Availability Drive Higher Shipments
Sources attributed the anticipated rise in shipments to more favorable weather conditions and an increase in tanker availability. The situation marks a shift from earlier in the year when U.S. sanctions targeted 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian energy, creating export challenges. However, traders noted that in April, the availability of non-sanctioned tankers will improve, further facilitating shipments.
A preliminary maintenance schedule suggests that the volume of idle primary refining capacity at Russian refineries will drop to 2.9 million tons in April, down 0.7 million tons from March. However, recent drone strikes on Russian refineries and ongoing revisions to the maintenance schedule may lead to increased idle capacity next month, sources warned.
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Impact of Drone Attacks and Supply Chain Adjustments
“The situation is constantly changing, the attacks are intense, so we can expect the appearance of additional volumes even to the current plan,” a Russian oil trader stated.
Another trader highlighted that a decline in Russian oil supplies via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system could further boost exports from western ports.
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On March 19, an oil depot in the village of Kavkazskaya in Russia’s Krasnodar region was targeted in an attack, resulting in a massive fire and the destruction of a key transshipment facility connected to the CPC system, which primarily handles Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Monthly CPC shipments were estimated at over 130,000 tons, and traders reported that these volumes may now be redirected to alternative ports, such as Novorossiisk.
OPEC+ Compliance and Planned Output Adjustments
Russia has outlined a phased compensation plan for overproduction under the OPEC+ agreement. The country aims to implement output reductions of 25,000 bpd in March, 51,000 bpd in April, 76,000 bpd in May, and 102,000 bpd in June, in accordance with OPEC+ commitments.
