Manila – Senate candidates backed by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appear set to dominate the upcoming May midterm elections, with a new poll indicating they will claim three-quarters of the available seats. This comes despite efforts to discredit the government over the arrest of former leader Rodrigo Duterte.
The Philippine Senate, packed with political heavyweights, holds significant influence, and midterm elections for 12 of its 24 seats are closely monitored as a gauge of public support for the president. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll, conducted among 1,800 voters just four days after Duterte was transferred to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity, reflects a strong backing for Marcos-aligned candidates.
Duterte’s loyal supporters, particularly active online, have portrayed him as a persecuted hero, framing his arrest as a foreign “kidnapping” allegedly facilitated by the Marcos administration—an accusation the government has firmly denied.
A Proxy Battle Between Marcos and Duterte Camps
The May 12 elections are widely viewed as a political showdown between the influential Duterte and Marcos families, following the dramatic collapse of their once-powerful alliance. This partnership initially helped propel Marcos to the presidency in 2022, with Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, as vice president.
The handover of the elder Duterte to the International Criminal Court has been a major setback for the Duterte family, which has seen a rapid decline in political fortunes. Just a month prior, Sara Duterte was impeached by a lower house led by Marcos allies.
Sara Duterte, once considered a strong contender for the 2028 presidency, is set to face trial in the Senate later this year. A conviction would require a two-thirds majority and could lead to her removal from office and a lifetime ban from holding public office.
The allegations against her include misuse of public funds, accumulation of unexplained wealth, and issuing threats against President Marcos, the first lady, and the House Speaker. Duterte has dismissed the accusations, claiming they are politically motivated with an eye on the 2028 elections.
Senate Allies Could Influence Duterte’s Fate
Despite the challenges facing the Duterte camp, the latest survey indicates that two of Sara Duterte’s staunch allies—her father’s former presidential aide and an ex-police chief who led the drug war—are likely to be reelected. Their presence in the Senate could bolster her defense in the impeachment proceedings.
Beyond the Senate race, the midterms will also decide 317 congressional seats and thousands of local government positions. Notably, Rodrigo Duterte himself is running for mayor of Davao City, despite his detention in The Hague.
Veteran political analyst and former presidential adviser Ronald Llamas noted that despite strong criticism over Duterte’s arrest, Marcos appears set to consolidate power through these elections.
