Bangkok: Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is set to face a no-confidence motion in parliament beginning Monday, as opposition parties target her administration over economic struggles and allegations of undue influence from her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Despite tepid approval ratings in public opinion polls, Paetongtarn appears to be in a stable political position, with the ruling coalition maintaining a parliamentary majority. This makes it unlikely that the motion will succeed when it is put to a vote on Wednesday.
Opposition’s Accusations
The opposition People’s Party has accused Paetongtarn of being guided by her father, Thaksin, a highly influential and controversial political figure. Thaksin, a billionaire businessman and former premier, remains banned from holding office due to a conviction for conflicts of interest and abuse of power. His legal troubles forced him into self-imposed exile for 15 years before his return to Thailand in 2023. Following his return, he served six months in detention in a hospital before being released on parole.
Although Thaksin has publicly advocated policies such as legalizing gambling, promoting cryptocurrency, and rolling out a $14 billion economic stimulus scheme, both he and Paetongtarn have denied allegations that he wields undue influence over her government. Paetongtarn has maintained that her administration operates independently, while Thaksin, now 75, insists he has retired and only provides occasional advice.
Economic Challenges and Structural Concerns
Thailand’s economic growth has remained sluggish, with a GDP expansion of just 2.5% in 2023—lagging behind regional peers. Structural economic issues, including high household debt amounting to 16.34 trillion baht ($486 billion), or 89% of the country’s GDP, have compounded economic difficulties. The opposition has criticized the government for failing to implement adequate measures to address these challenges.
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The debate over Thaksin’s influence has been a longstanding issue in Thai politics. However, parliamentary rules prohibit lawmakers from explicitly naming him during the censure motion. After weeks of discussion, the house speaker has ruled that the term “family member” may be used instead.
Political Analysis and Public Reaction
According to Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, the opposition’s strategy to undermine Paetongtarn’s legitimacy is not surprising. “The opposition’s tactic to delegitimize Paetongtarn’s leadership is not new because she already faces criticism from society,” Yuttaporn noted. However, he argued that focusing on Thaksin’s perceived influence rather than pressing economic and security concerns could render the motion more political than beneficial to the public.
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Paetongtarn, 38, assumed office in August after her political ally, former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, was removed from power over an ethics violation. She is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to hold the nation’s top political post, continuing the dynasty’s deep entrenchment in Thai politics.
