Brussles: European military powers are formulating a long-term strategy to gradually assume the role traditionally played by the United States in NATO, according to reports from the Financial Times and Digi24.
Europe’s Plan for Greater Defense Autonomy
Europe’s largest military nations are spearheading efforts to take greater responsibility for the continent’s security, with a structured proposal aimed at transitioning leadership over the next five to ten years. The move is intended to mitigate the potential instability of a sudden U.S. withdrawal from NATO, a concern that has intensified following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to reduce or abandon the country’s commitments to the alliance.
Countries including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and several Nordic nations are engaged in informal yet coordinated discussions on the matter, according to four European officials familiar with the negotiations. Their objective is to present a concrete plan to the United States ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague in June, ensuring that Europe can take on more of the financial and military responsibilities currently shouldered by the U.S.
The proposed transition would involve increased European defense spending and enhanced military capabilities, forming part of a broader strategy to persuade Washington to accept a phased shift in leadership. This approach would enable the U.S. to focus more on its strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
U.S. Military Presence Remains Critical
Despite Europe’s ambition to strengthen its defense autonomy, the United States remains the dominant force within NATO, with defense expenditures surpassing those of all other member states combined. The U.S. contributes essential military assets, including nuclear deterrence, critical air and naval capabilities, and around 80,000 troops stationed across the continent.
While the U.S. nuclear umbrella is not part of the planned transition, European nations have significantly ramped up their military investments. Since Trump’s election, Germany, France, and the U.K. have accelerated their defense spending plans, while the European Union has pursued joint military initiatives to bolster regional security.
Officials acknowledge that it may take up to a decade of sustained investment for European forces to match the scale of the U.S. military presence—excluding its nuclear capabilities.
“Increasing spending is the only solution we have—sharing the burden and moving away from dependence on the U.S.,” one official stated.
However, European leaders remain divided on whether Washington would agree to a structured transition. Some governments worry that advocating for burden-sharing might inadvertently push the U.S. toward a faster withdrawal, while others question whether the Trump administration, known for its unpredictability, would uphold any such agreement.
“You need a deal with the Americans, and it’s not clear they’re willing to make one. Can you trust them to stick to it?” one official remarked.
A European-Led Defense Initiative
Discussions on Europe’s enhanced military role, spearheaded by France and the U.K., involve more than a dozen European defense powers—excluding the U.S. One key objective is to establish a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine and reinforce European defense capabilities.
Also Read | Heathrow Back in Action After Fire-Induced Power Failure
In response to questions about whether a distinct “European pillar” within NATO is viable, a senior Western official noted:
“We’re seeing it already—Britain and France are taking the lead on a reassurance force for Ukraine, without the Americans.”
The Future of NATO Without the U.S.
NATO officials argue that preserving the alliance, even with reduced or absent U.S. involvement, would be far more practical than creating an entirely new defense framework from scratch. NATO already possesses a well-established military planning system, a cohesive command structure, and the collective security guarantee of Article 5.
Security analysts suggest that Europe’s core defense strategy would still require contributions from the U.K. and other Atlantic naval powers, the Nordic nations for northern defense, and Turkey for security in the southeastern region—many of which are already key NATO members.
Also Read | UN Report Accuses Russia of War Crimes Against Ukrainian Children
“Even without the United States, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe,” said Marion Messmer, senior fellow for international security at Chatham House.
“Some aspects would need to be replaced in the event of U.S. disengagement. But there’s already a structure and infrastructure that Europeans are familiar with. That does much of the work you’d have to do from scratch if you were to build something new just for European members,” she added.
