Kinshasa: Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi has long refused to engage in dialogue with the M23 rebels, a Rwanda-backed group responsible for ongoing violence in the country’s eastern region. However, a series of military setbacks and dwindling regional support appear to be forcing a reconsideration of this stance.
The announcement by neighboring Angola that Kinshasa and M23 representatives would meet for direct talks in Luanda on March 18 caught many observers off guard. The proposed negotiations come as the rebels continue their territorial expansion, seizing areas rich in valuable minerals such as coltan and tantalum.
While Tshisekedi’s government has yet to publicly confirm participation, three government sources told Reuters this week that a delegation is being seriously considered. With Congo’s military and its allied forces struggling to contain M23’s advances, regional powers increasingly view diplomatic engagement as the only viable path forward.
Regional Pressure for Dialogue
“I haven’t talked to a single African country that says Kinshasa shouldn’t talk to M23,” a senior diplomat stated, reflecting the broader regional sentiment. “The line of everyone is, ‘How do you stop the fighting if you don’t engage with them?'”
One source indicated that Congo’s participation in the Angola-hosted talks is highly probable, though the composition of Kinshasa’s delegation remains undecided. Other sources noted that internal debate is ongoing and that a final decision is expected next week.
For its part, M23 has insisted on a clear commitment from Tshisekedi to engage in meaningful negotiations. Both sides have raised concerns about the framework of the discussions and their alignment with existing regional peace initiatives.
Foreign and defense ministers from Southern and East African nations are scheduled to convene in Harare on Monday to deliberate on strategies for achieving a ceasefire and advancing political dialogue.
Shifting Military and Diplomatic Landscape
According to U.N. experts, M23 benefits from the backing of thousands of Rwandan troops, whose advanced weaponry has enabled the rebels to capture key cities and strategic localities in eastern Congo. Rwanda has repeatedly denied these allegations, asserting that its forces are merely defending against incursions by the Congolese military and hostile militias.
Tshisekedi has long vowed never to negotiate with M23, and engaging in talks could prove highly unpopular domestically. However, doing so may signal an implicit acknowledgment that his military strategy against the rebels has failed, said Bob Kabamba, a Congolese analyst at Belgium’s University of Liege.
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“Kinshasa’s position of dialogue is understandable because it finds itself stuck, thinking that the [rebel alliance] must not reach a critical threshold,” Kabamba noted.
Angola’s Intervention and Regional Concerns
Angola’s decision to host the talks reflects growing apprehension about the conflict’s potential to escalate into a broader regional war, reminiscent of the devastating conflicts that engulfed Central Africa in the 1990s and early 2000s.
“Angola has clearly decided that it is necessary to intervene to prevent the advance of the M23 towards the west of the DRC,” said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo analyst at South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.
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Further underscoring the lack of confidence in Tshisekedi’s military strategy, Southern African leaders this week approved a phased withdrawal of the SAMIDRC regional force, which had been deployed to combat armed groups. Although the force had limited impact against M23, its presence symbolized regional backing for Kinshasa. The withdrawal, analysts say, marks a significant diplomatic blow for the Congolese government.
As the crisis deepens, the decision to engage with M23 could reshape Congo’s approach to resolving the protracted conflict, even as Tshisekedi weighs the political risks of reversing his long-standing refusal to negotiate.
