Beijing: Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures jumped 6% at market open on Monday, marking a sharp rally following China’s announcement of new tariffs on Canadian agricultural imports, including rapeseed oil and oil cakes.
Effective March 20, the tariffs impose a 100% levy on more than $1 billion worth of Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, alongside a 25% duty on $1.6 billion worth of Canadian aquatic products and pork. These measures mirror the 100% and 25% tariffs Canada imposed last year on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel.
In response, the most-active rapeseed meal contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange surged 6.01% to 2,611 yuan ($360.11) per metric ton—the steepest daily increase since September 2022.
However, analysts suggest the price spike may be short-lived.
“China has alternative origins for rapeseed oil such as Russia and the EU, and the Chinese import duty hike could pressure Canadian canola prices, resulting in a sharp decline in product prices,” said Anilkumar Bagani, research head at Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group.
“It also needs to be noted that China has huge rapeseed oil stocks at the moment and the crush capacity utilization is also considerably high,” Bagani added.
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China had launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola last year but did not include the oilseed crop in the latest tariff measures—potentially leaving room for trade negotiations, according to analysts and traders.
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Canola remains a key Canadian export to China, the world’s largest agricultural importer.
