New York/Kyiv: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine found itself in possession of the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The newly independent nation inherited an estimated 5,000 nuclear warheads, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of delivering up to 10 thermonuclear warheads each. These weapons were strategically stored in underground facilities across the country.
Despite possessing this formidable stockpile, Ukraine made an unprecedented decision—to relinquish its nuclear weapons voluntarily. It remains the only country in history to have done so, a move that would profoundly shape its future and ultimately play a significant role in its ongoing conflict with Russia, according to a report by The New York Times.
Ukraine’s Path to Nuclear Disarmament
In the early 1990s, Ukraine faced a complex geopolitical landscape. While it physically housed a significant nuclear arsenal, it lacked the operational control required to use it. The launch codes and command infrastructure remained in Moscow, effectively rendering Ukraine unable to deploy its weapons independently. As security experts pointed out, the deterrence value of these warheads was limited given Ukraine’s lack of authority over them.
Beyond strategic concerns, maintaining a nuclear arsenal would have placed a severe financial burden on Ukraine’s struggling economy. The cost of securing, maintaining, and modernizing the stockpile was immense, making nuclear disarmament a practical choice.
International pressure also played a pivotal role. The global community sought to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and Ukraine faced significant diplomatic consequences if it attempted to retain its arsenal. The United States and NATO allies warned that keeping nuclear weapons could result in diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions. Russia, too, was unlikely to tolerate a nuclear-armed Ukraine on its border.
In response to these pressures, the U.S. introduced the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program in 1991, aimed at assisting former Soviet republics—including Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan—in dismantling their nuclear capabilities. As part of this broader initiative, Ukraine entered into the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, agreeing to surrender its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Under the memorandum, the signatories pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, refraining from the use of force or coercion. Should Ukraine face aggression, the agreement stipulated that immediate action would be sought through the United Nations Security Council.
Between 1994 and 1996, Ukraine dismantled its nuclear stockpile, with the last warheads being transferred to Russia by May 1996.
Putin’s Ascendancy and the Unraveling of the Budapest Memorandum
The assurances outlined in the Budapest Memorandum unraveled over time, particularly with the rise of Vladimir Putin. In 1993, political scientist John J. Mearsheimer warned that Ukraine needed a nuclear deterrent to safeguard its sovereignty, arguing that without one, it could face future Russian aggression. Decades later, his prediction proved prescient.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, exposing the fragility of Ukraine’s security guarantees. Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and one of the Budapest Memorandum’s negotiators, described the failure to anticipate Russia’s geopolitical ambitions as a “collective failure” between Washington and Kyiv. Putin dismissed the Budapest Memorandum as “null and void” before swiftly moving Russian forces into Crimea.
This breach of international law not only destabilized Ukraine but also raised global concerns about the credibility of security guarantees provided by nuclear powers.
Three Years of War: Ukraine’s Ongoing Struggle
In 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, plunging the nation into a prolonged and devastating conflict. The war has tested the limits of international diplomacy, as Ukraine’s sovereignty—once theoretically guaranteed by global powers—was directly challenged by a nuclear-armed adversary.
To defend itself, Ukraine has relied heavily on military assistance from Western nations, particularly the United States and NATO allies. This aid has included advanced weapons systems, intelligence-sharing, and training support.
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The war has inflicted severe human and economic costs. Thousands of civilians have been killed, millions displaced, and large portions of Ukraine’s infrastructure reduced to rubble. As the conflict persists, questions remain about Ukraine’s long-term security framework. The effectiveness of the Budapest Memorandum’s promises has been widely debated, with some analysts arguing that Ukraine’s decision to denuclearize left it vulnerable to aggression.
While the West continues to support Ukraine, uncertainty lingers over the country’s future security arrangements. With NATO membership still a contentious issue and the prospect of future Russian incursions remaining a threat, Ukraine’s decision to disarm in the 1990s has become one of the most consequential geopolitical moves in modern history.
