Tokyo – Japan’s birth rate plummeted to a record low of 720,988 babies in 2024, marking a ninth straight year of decline, the health ministry reported Thursday. The 5% drop from the previous year highlights a deepening demographic crisis, with the population aging and shrinking at an alarming pace. Meanwhile, deaths soared to an all-time high of 1.62 million—more than two deaths for every birth.
Despite former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s 2023 initiatives to reverse the trend, the measures have failed to stem the decline. Neighboring South Korea, however, saw its fertility rate rise to 0.75 in 2024 from 0.72, buoyed by policies encouraging marriage and parenthood—a contrast to Japan’s stubbornly stagnant 1.20 fertility rate from 2023.
The roots of Japan’s childbirth slump trace back to fewer marriages, a trend worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economist Takumi Fujinami of the Japan Research Institute noted a 12.7% plunge in marriages in 2020, with only a modest 2.2% rebound to 499,999 in 2024. “The impact could linger into 2025,” he warned. Unlike Western nations, where out-of-wedlock births are common, Japan sees few—tying births closely to marriage rates.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba acknowledged the uptick in marriages but stressed, “The falling birth trend hasn’t stopped. Given the link between marriages and births, we must focus there.” Experts point to South Korea’s success—driven by childcare support, housing aid, and work-life balance policies—as a potential roadmap. Fujinami urged Japan to enhance job opportunities and gender equality to spur young people toward family life.
As Japan’s population dwindles, the stakes grow higher. Without a turnaround, the nation faces a future of economic strain and shrinking vitality.
Key Points:
Record Low Births: Japan’s births dropped to 720,988 in 2024, a 5% decline and the ninth consecutive year of decrease, per the health ministry’s Thursday report.
Deaths Outpace Births: A record 1.62 million deaths in 2024 means over two deaths per birth, accelerating population aging and shrinkage.
Policy Failure: Efforts by former PM Fumio Kishida in 2023 to boost childbearing have not reversed the trend.
Marriage Trends: Fewer marriages, notably a 12.7% drop in 2020 due to COVID-19, drive the birth decline; a 2.2% rise to 499,999 in 2024 hasn’t offset earlier losses.
Fertility Comparison: Japan’s 2023 fertility rate was 1.20, while South Korea’s rose to 0.75 in 2024, hinting at a turnaround there.
Cultural Factor: Unlike Western countries, Japan has few out-of-wedlock births, linking births tightly to marriage rates.
Leadership Response: PM Shigeru Ishiba noted the marriage uptick but emphasized the ongoing birth decline, calling for focus on marriage trends.
Proposed Solutions: Experts suggest improving job opportunities, gender equality, and work-family balance, inspired by South Korea’s childcare and housing support.
