New Delhi: India is expected to experience above-average temperatures in February following an unseasonably warm January, the country’s weather office warned on Friday. The rising temperatures pose a significant risk to crucial winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), stated during a virtual press briefing that both maximum and minimum temperatures across most regions would remain above normal throughout the month. Additionally, February is likely to witness below-average rainfall, with fewer cold days than usual, he said.
Impact on Agriculture
“Below normal rainfall, along with higher temperatures over the plains of northwest India, would have a significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain-filling stages. Crops like mustard and chickpea may also experience early maturity,” Mohapatra noted.
The states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh in northern India, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, are among the country’s primary wheat-producing regions. Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are typically sown between October and December, requiring cooler temperatures during their growth and maturation phases to ensure optimal yields.
A report by Reuters on Thursday had already suggested that February temperatures would likely remain above average, particularly in key wheat and rapeseed-growing areas.
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Economic Implications
Mohapatra also highlighted that January saw higher-than-average minimum and maximum temperatures, coupled with lower-than-normal rainfall. The prolonged warm weather trend has historically resulted in lower wheat yields and a sharp decline in government reserves, leading to price surges.
Earlier this month, wheat prices soared to a record 33,250 rupees ($384.05) per metric ton, reflecting supply concerns. Similarly, a potential decline in rapeseed production could increase India’s reliance on vegetable oil imports, traders warned.
As the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, India sources palm oil primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while purchasing soybean and sunflower oils from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.
The ongoing temperature anomalies and uncertain rainfall patterns raise concerns over food security and inflation, adding pressure on policymakers to mitigate potential disruptions in agricultural output.
