Washington: Donald Trump lauds her as a “fantastic woman” taking Europe by storm. Giorgia Meloni hails him as a “strong and shrewd defender of the West”. Together, the former U.S. president and Italy’s prime minister are forging a new transatlantic partnership, one that could reshape dynamics between the United States and Europe.
Meloni stood as the sole European leader at Trump’s presidential inauguration on Monday. Her presence followed a high-profile meeting at his Mar-a-Lago estate just two weeks earlier. This cemented her status as Washington’s preferred interlocutor in Europe, a position underscored by Italian Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli.
“Trump has chosen her for credibility, reliability, and for the stability of our government,” Cirielli said, emphasizing the potential benefits for both Italy and the European Union.
A High-Stakes Partnership
For Meloni, aligning with Trump presents both opportunities and risks. Italy’s significant trade surplus with the U.S. and its limited defense budget could create friction with the new administration. Leveraging her relationship with Trump may help Italy avoid tariffs or other punitive measures, but it also poses challenges. A too-close alignment with Trump risks alienating Brussels, where Meloni has worked to build trust.
“Meloni is in a very awkward position,” said Francesco Galietti, founder of political risk firm Policy Sonar. “While having Trump’s ear may seem advantageous, it could isolate her in Europe and fail to shield Italy from U.S. trade measures or criticism over defense spending.”
In her decade-long rise from leading a marginalized ultranationalist party to heading one of Italy’s most stable post-war governments, Meloni has united conservative and far-right factions. Now, with Trump as an ideological ally, she has the chance to extend this influence on a global stage, akin to the Thatcher-Reagan partnership of the 1980s.
Meloni’s Balancing Act
Meloni has pledged to strengthen ties between the U.S. and Europe, calling this partnership “essential for stability and growth”. However, analysts suggest her eurosceptic instincts may prevail.
“Believing she will act primarily in Europe’s interest is naive,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali. “She will instinctively prioritize national interests.”
Trump’s praise of Meloni has been effusive. During her Mar-a-Lago visit, he described her as “a fantastic woman.” Meloni, in turn, credited Trump with the ability to balance diplomacy and deterrence, potentially bringing Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
Yet, Italy faces significant risks under Trump’s policies. The country’s €42.1 billion trade surplus with the U.S. makes it particularly vulnerable to proposed tariffs aimed at reversing the EU trade imbalance. While Italian officials hope to deflect such measures, analysts warn that tariffs targeting Germany or France would inevitably affect Italy as well.
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Strengthening Ties with Elon Musk
Beyond Trump, Meloni has cultivated a relationship with billionaire Elon Musk. The two have exchanged glowing remarks, with Musk calling her “even more beautiful inside than outside.” Meloni described Musk as a “precious genius”.
Her government is reportedly negotiating a €1.5 billion, five-year contract with Musk’s Starlink to provide secure satellite communications for Italy’s military and diplomats. Critics argue this prioritizes national needs over European unity, particularly as the EU plans to launch its own satellite system, IRIS2, by 2030.
Challenges Ahead
Despite these alliances, challenges remain. Italy’s defense spending, at 1.5% of GDP, falls short of NATO’s 2% target and well below Trump’s proposed 5% benchmark. Observers doubt that Meloni’s rapport with Trump will suffice to bridge this gap.
“Being Trump’s bestie isn’t going to help Meloni deliver on defense promises,” said Galietti.
The extent to which Meloni can navigate these competing pressures will determine her success in balancing Italy’s national interests with its role in Europe.
