Damascus: After 13 years of civil war, a rare alignment of circumstances allowed Syrian opposition forces to topple President Bashar al-Assad. About six months ago, opposition militias shared plans for a decisive offensive with Turkey, reportedly receiving tacit approval, according to sources familiar with the strategy.
The operation, launched just two weeks ago, achieved an unanticipated speed of success. The rebels swiftly captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and continued their advance to Damascus, culminating in the end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule on Sunday.
Strategic Momentum
Key factors played into the rebels’ favor: a demoralized Syrian army, waning support from Iran and Hezbollah amid conflict with Israel, and a distracted Russia, increasingly disengaged due to its commitments in Ukraine.
Turkey’s involvement, while indirect, was pivotal. Although Turkey classifies the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as a terrorist organization, it has backed other factions, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA). “The rebels had communicated their plans to Turkey and sensed a shift in Ankara’s stance,” a Syrian opposition figure revealed.
Hadi Al-Bahra, head of the internationally recognized Syrian opposition, acknowledged limited cooperation between HTS and SNA during planning. Turkish officials, however, denied providing approval or coordination.
Assad’s Vulnerability
Assad’s downfall came at a moment of extreme vulnerability for his regime. Rampant corruption and resource depletion crippled Syria’s armed forces, leaving tanks and planes without fuel. “Morale in the army had severely eroded,” said a regime insider.
Experts noted that the HTS-led coalition was stronger and more unified than any previous opposition forces during the war. “A lot of that is due to Abu Mohammed al-Golani’s leadership,” said Aron Lund of Century International.
Ripple Effects
The rebel offensive capitalized on Hezbollah’s weakening influence. Already reeling from losses in its conflict with Israel, including the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah had significantly reduced its presence in Syria.
The fall of Assad also dealt a major blow to Iranian influence in the region. In contrast, Turkey emerged as the dominant external player, with control over key rebel factions and a military presence on the ground.
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Beyond shifting the regional balance of power, Turkey leveraged the operation to curtail the influence of Syrian Kurdish groups. Backed by the United States but viewed as terrorists by Ankara, these groups suffered territorial losses during the offensive.
Birol Baskan, a political scientist based in Turkey, called it a strategic victory for Erdogan’s government: “Turkey turned out to be the biggest external winner.”
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The Path Ahead
While the swift success of the operation marks a turning point for Syria, the country faces significant challenges in rebuilding from years of devastation. The opposition now holds a fragile coalition, with the task of governance looming large.
