Brussels: NATO is unlikely to extend a membership invitation to Ukraine during the alliance’s foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday, according to diplomatic sources. The anticipated decision dims Kyiv’s hopes for a significant political boost amid its ongoing struggles on the battlefield and uncertainties about U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump.
In a letter addressed to NATO counterparts, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha argued that issuing a membership invitation would counter one of Russia’s main justifications for its war—preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. However, a consensus among the alliance’s 32 members remains elusive, according to diplomats speaking anonymously.
“It will take weeks and months to achieve consensus,” remarked a senior NATO diplomat. “I don’t see that happening tomorrow. I would be very surprised.”
A senior U.S. official highlighted that the meeting’s primary focus would be on enhancing support for Ukraine, aiming to strengthen its position for potential negotiations in the coming year. “The best way to do that is to surge money, munitions, and mobilization,” the official stated.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reinforced this stance, announcing a new $725 million weapons package for Ukraine on Monday.
NATO Membership: A Guarantee for Ukraine’s Security
Ukraine views NATO membership as the ultimate safeguard for its future. Under Article 5 of NATO’s mutual defense pact, an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, obligating collective defense.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently suggested that placing Ukrainian-controlled territories under NATO’s protection could help de-escalate the ongoing war. However, Kyiv faces a challenging winter, with Moscow making territorial gains in the east and targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Although NATO has reaffirmed Ukraine’s eventual membership and called its accession path “irreversible,” the alliance has yet to issue a formal invitation or timeline.
Trump’s Role in Future NATO Decisions
The final decision on Ukraine’s NATO membership heavily relies on the United States, making it a priority for the incoming Trump administration, which assumes office next month. Current Biden administration officials acknowledge that any significant moves regarding Ukraine should align with the next administration to ensure long-term consistency.
Recent discussions between outgoing National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and his successor Mike Waltz have touched upon Ukraine, though the extent of alignment between the two administrations remains uncertain.
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While Trump has criticized the scale of U.S. aid to Kyiv and pledged to end the conflict swiftly, he has not provided specific details on his approach to resolving the war.
Opposition Within NATO
Several NATO members, including Hungary, have openly opposed Ukraine’s membership bid. Others, such as Germany and the United States under the current administration, have expressed reservations, signaling that the timing may not be appropriate for such a move.
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