An Israeli airstrike near the Masnaa border crossing in Lebanon has created a massive crater, severing a key road used by thousands of people fleeing the ongoing conflict. The strike has intensified tensions in the region, with Israel alleging that Hezbollah was using the crossing to smuggle weapons, while Lebanon maintains that the area is under its sovereign control.
The situation has escalated as former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak predicted a larger Israeli military response, possibly targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure and military installations connected to its nuclear program. Barak’s comments come in the wake of Iran’s recent missile assault on Israel, which involved over 180 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted, though some hit densely populated areas and military bases.
“Israel has a compelling need, even an imperative, to respond. No sovereign nation on Earth could fail to act in such circumstances,” Barak said in an interview, reflecting the seriousness of the potential Israeli retaliation.
Israeli Retaliation Against Iran: Risks and Strategy
Barak suggested that Israel’s military response could mirror its recent strikes against Houthi-controlled oil facilities in Yemen. These strikes followed a missile attack by Houthi rebels targeting Israel’s international airport near Tel Aviv. Over the past 10 days, more than 300,000 people, mostly Syrians, have fled the region as violence continues to intensify.
The former prime minister hinted that a massive airstrike could be launched, possibly repeated multiple times, to disrupt Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. U.S. President Joe Biden acknowledged ongoing discussions in Washington about a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s oil sector but did not disclose whether the U.S. would support such action.
Barak, who served as defense minister from 2007 to 2013, had been a strong advocate for military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in the past. However, he now concedes that Iran’s nuclear program is too advanced for any bombing campaign to achieve significant results. “Iran is a de facto threshold country,” Barak said, indicating that while Iran does not yet possess a nuclear weapon, it could potentially develop one within a year.
Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Growing Threat
The 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, has largely unraveled since the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Donald Trump. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium now exceeds 30 times the limit set by the agreement, and the country is enriching uranium to levels approaching weapons-grade material.
Although some within Israel’s defense establishment are pushing for symbolic strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, Barak believes such actions would have limited impact. “You can cause certain damage, but the reality is that it won’t delay their program in a meaningful way,” Barak cautioned, adding that some Israeli planners might still view such a strike as necessary to avoid inaction.
As the situation remains volatile, the prospect of further military escalations looms, with both Israel and Iran navigating the delicate balance between retaliation and restraint in the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
