Tallahassee: Florida is on alert for a “broad, sloppy” weather system that may develop into a tropical storm this weekend, with forecasts predicting up to a foot (30 cm) of rain and winds exceeding 70 mph (110 kph), as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season intensifies.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for extreme southern Florida, extending to the Fort Myers area, which was severely impacted by Hurricane Ian in 2022. The storm is expected to reach the west coast of the state by Saturday night.
The National Hurricane Center has warned of significant ocean surges from Bonita Beach to Tampa Bay. These surges could push powerful sea waves further inland than usual, causing damage to structures and posing a threat to residents.
Governor Ron DeSantis has issued emergency orders for most of the state’s cities and counties in anticipation of the storm’s arrival.
“It’s over Cuba right now,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rome stated in an interview on Friday. “We are anticipating it to turn into a tropical storm over the weekend. Right now it’s a broad, sloppy system but we expect it to become more organized when it’s back over Gulf waters.”
Should the system develop into a tropical storm, with winds ranging between 39 mph and 73 mph (63-117 kph), it will be named Debby.
U.S. forecasters predict a busy Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, forecasting four to seven major hurricanes out of 25 named storms. This exceeds the record-breaking 2005 season, which produced hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
To date, only one hurricane, Beryl, has formed this year. It was the earliest Category 5 storm on record, devastating the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before impacting Texas as a Category 1 storm with winds up to 95 mph.
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Even if the current system does not strengthen into a tropical storm, it is expected to bring substantial rainfall to parts of Florida, according to Rome.
“People often use wind speed as a proxy for how dangerous a system is,” Rome remarked. “But this is a classic case to not do that. The rain rate, it comes down so quickly, makes it dangerous.”
Rome added that it is too early to pinpoint the exact timing or location of the storm’s landfall this weekend.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys and the Gulf Coast.
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Key West Mayor Teri Johnston assured that the community is “well prepared but not worried” about the storm. “Everyone’s on it, everyone knows what to do. Load up on three to seven days’ of supplies and water, batteries, remove all potential projectiles from the yard,” she said. “We’re ready.”
The storm is projected to follow a similar path to Hurricane Ian, which caused significant damage and claimed at least 103 lives in Florida in 2022.
