London: India’s nuclear arsenal has slightly surpassed Pakistan’s with two additional warheads, indicating possible advancements in its nuclear capabilities, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The SIPRI Yearbook 2024 reports that as of January 2024, India holds 172 nuclear warheads, compared to Pakistan’s 170. In stark contrast, China has significantly outpaced both nations with an inventory of 500 nuclear warheads.
While Pakistan’s stockpile has remained constant, India’s nuclear arsenal has increased from 164 warheads in the previous year. “Both India and Pakistan continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems in 2023,” the SIPRI report notes.
The report highlights that although Pakistan remains the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, New Delhi is increasingly emphasizing longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China. It elaborates that India’s nuclear forces are now organized into a “maturing nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).”
Historically, it was believed that India kept its nuclear warheads separate from their launchers during peacetime. However, the report suggests a shift might be occurring. “Recent moves towards placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India could be moving towards mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime.”
SIPRI’s estimates are based on calculations involving India’s inventory of weapon-grade plutonium, the number of operational nuclear-capable delivery systems, nuclear doctrine, publicly available information, and private discussions with defense officials.
At the beginning of 2024, nine nuclear-armed states collectively possessed an estimated 12,121 nuclear weapons. These countries, including the US, Russia, the UK, France, North Korea, and Israel, along with India, Pakistan, and China, held approximately 12,121 nuclear weapons, with about 9,585 considered potentially operationally available. The US and Russia together hold nearly 90 percent of the world’s nuclear arsenal.
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China’s nuclear arsenal has grown from 410 warheads to 500 over the past year, and SIPRI predicts continued expansion. “China is on a significant modernization and expansion path for its nuclear arsenal,” the report states.
SIPRI’s research suggests that China could potentially deploy as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the US within the next decade. “Even so, China’s overall nuclear warhead stockpile is expected to remain smaller than that of either the US or Russia,” it adds.
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Similar to India, China was long thought to store its nuclear warheads separately from their launchers during peacetime. However, recent developments indicate a possible change. “China’s recent moves towards placing solid-fuelled missiles in silos, conducting sea-based deterrence patrols, and potentially developing a launch-on-warning (LOW) capability suggest that China might have started mating a small number of its warheads with their launchers,” SIPRI suggests.
