Indian Election Results Defy Predictions: Modi’s Alliance Faces Uphill Battle

New Delhi: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to secure a majority in parliament, according to early vote counting on Tuesday. However, the alliance’s victory falls short of the landslide predicted by exit polls, suggesting a more closely contested election.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a Hindu nationalist party, had previously won a majority in the 2014 elections, putting an end to a period of unstable coalition governments. They repeated this feat in 2019.

Here are some reactions from analysts:

YASHWANT DESHMUKH, FOUNDER, POLLING AGENCY CVOTER FOUNDATION

“BJP and NDA’s seat share is lower-than-expected. There is only one state that has gone completely off the charts in our data: Uttar Pradesh. And that has pulled down the BJP’s own tally as well, and this is the reason they are unable to touch the majority mark on their own at this point in time. “BJP’s two allies have become extremely important now – Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, now that BJP might not get its own majority.”

RAHEED KIDWAI, VISITING FELLOW, OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION

“I think there were a lot of economic issues. The BJP has performed poorly in rural areas. There was a lot of defection and maneuvering that happened in Maharashtra that backfired. Overreliance on Modi did not work. “This trend shows that Modi can be beaten and regional parties have emerged as a significant force.”

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SANDEEP SHASTRI, NATIONAL COORDINATOR, LOKNITI

“The decline in the BJP’s seat count is linked to three states: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. In Uttar Pradesh, in particular, the construction and inauguration of the Ram temple did not become a major issue. The social coalition formed by the Samajwadi Party and Congress seems to have made the difference as it was formidable.”

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SURENDRA KUMAR DIWEDI, POLITICAL ANALYST

“The trend clearly shows that in a state like Uttar Pradesh, which houses the Ram Temple, the temple is no longer the sole deciding factor. Developmental issues, especially those related to youth such as rampant leaks in competitive examinations and unemployment, have made an impact on the largest chunk of voters, the youth.”

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