New Delhi: India is poised to receive above-average monsoon rains this year, according to the latest update from the weather office on Monday. This affirmation of the April forecast holds the promise of heightened agricultural output and economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts this year’s monsoon rains to reach 106% of the long-term average, as stated by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD, during a virtual news conference.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as falling between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season starting in June. The monsoon, vital for India’s nearly $3.5 trillion economy, provides nearly 70% of the rainfall required for crop irrigation and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.
Nearly half of India’s farmland relies solely on the June-September rains, lacking irrigation, to cultivate various crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugar cane.
A bountiful monsoon season could bolster farm output and broader economic growth, potentially alleviating food price inflation, which has surpassed the central bank’s comfort level in recent months, prompting it to resist reducing lending rates.
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Mohapatra noted that the La Niña weather phenomenon, known to increase rainfall in India, is expected to occur between July and September, augmenting rainfall nationwide. However, he cautioned that key rice-growing states in the northeast may experience below-average rains.
The repercussions of below-average rains in 2023 led to depleted reservoir levels and reduced food production. In response, the government imposed restrictions on the export of sugar, rice, onions, and wheat. The resumption of exports hinges on the pace of production recovery in 2024, contingent upon favorable monsoon rainfall.
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India holds the position of the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, rice, and sugar, while also being the largest importer of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil.
The monsoon is anticipated to make landfall on the Kerala coast in the southwest on May 31. Mohapatra predicts average rains in June, though maximum temperatures for the month are expected to surpass normal levels. Additionally, northwestern regions of the country could encounter heatwave conditions for four to six days in June, compared to the usual three heatwave days.
