Iran Mourns President Raisi Amidst Growing Discontent and Succession Uncertainty

Tehran/Tabriz: Thousands of Iranians gathered in Tabriz on Tuesday to mourn President Ebrahim Raisi, who tragically perished in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border over the weekend. The crash also claimed the lives of his foreign minister and seven other officials. State TV broadcasted live images of mourners, many dressed in black and beating their chests, as a truck adorned with white flowers and draped in national flags carried the caskets through the somber crowd.

“Everyone has come to bid farewell to the martyred president and his companions regardless of their faction, ethnicity or language,” stated Tabriz lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian.

Muted Public Grief

Despite state TV’s portrayal of a large turnout in Tabriz, some insiders observed a noticeable lack of public grief compared to past commemorations for other senior figures in the Islamic Republic’s 45-year history. The five-day mourning period for Raisi has not evoked the same emotional outpouring that followed the death of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, whose funeral saw vast crowds expressing sorrow and rage.

Raisi’s body was transported from Tabriz to Tehran airport and then to the holy Shi’ite city of Qom. It will return to Tehran’s Grand Mosalla Mosque before being taken to his hometown of Mashhad in eastern Iran for burial on Thursday. Mourners carried posters of Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the Friday prayer leader of Tabriz, and other officials who perished in the crash.

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Deepening Crisis

Raisi’s death comes at a time of heightened tension between Iran’s clerical leadership and society. Issues ranging from social and political controls to economic hardships have fueled discontent. In an effort to restore legitimacy after a historic low voter turnout of around 41% in March’s parliamentary elections, Iran’s rulers aim to generate public enthusiasm for the early presidential election on June 28.

However, lingering resentment from the violent state crackdown on nationwide unrest in 2022, following the death of a young Iranian-Kurdish woman in custody, continues to simmer. Worsening living standards and pervasive corruption have further dampened public spirits, leading many Iranians to lose hope in the ruling clerics’ ability to resolve the economic crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption.

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Raisi, a hardline protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pursued policies aimed at consolidating clerical power, suppressing opposition, and adopting a tough stance on foreign policy issues, including nuclear negotiations with Washington. Any candidate vying for the presidency must be vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline body that frequently disqualifies even prominent conservative and moderate officials, ensuring the continuity of the current policy direction.

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Uncertain Succession

Although Raisi was once considered a leading candidate to succeed the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei, his declining popularity had led to his removal from the list of potential successors six months ago. Analysts now see Raisi’s death as introducing “great uncertainty” in the succession, stirring rivalries within the hardliner camp over who will ultimately succeed Khamenei as the nation’s supreme authority.

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