Pune: A recent study led by Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, sheds light on the alarming trajectory of the Indian Ocean’s temperature. Between 2020 and 2100, surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are predicted to surge by 1.4 to 3 degrees Celsius. This surge is anticipated to plunge the region into a perpetual state of heatwave, akin to an atom bomb explosion every second, all day, every day, for a decade.
Marine heatwaves, periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures, are set to become more frequent, escalating from 20 days annually to a staggering 220-250 days per year. This relentless increase threatens irreversible damage to marine habitats, including coral bleaching and loss of crucial ecosystems such as kelp forests.
The consequences of this dramatic warming extend beyond the surface. The study reveals that the heat content of the Indian Ocean, up to a depth of 2,000 meters, is escalating at an alarming rate. The energy surge projected is equivalent to the detonation of one Hiroshima atomic bomb per second, illustrating the magnitude of the impending crisis.
The most severe warming is expected in the northwestern Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea, while areas off the Sumatra and Java coasts may experience comparatively lesser warming.
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This surge in ocean temperatures is poised to disrupt the seasonal temperature cycle, potentially exacerbating extreme weather events across the Indo-Pacific region. From the 1980s to the present, basin-average temperatures have ranged from 26 to 28 degrees Celsius. However, by the end of the century, minimum temperatures are forecasted to hover between 28.5 to 30.7 degrees Celsius year-round under high emission scenarios.
The rise in sea surface temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius is conducive to deep convection and cyclogenesis, leading to an increase in heavy rainfall events and severe cyclones. Since the 1950s, these events have been on the rise and are anticipated to escalate further with increasing ocean temperatures.
Furthermore, the study predicts a rise in sea levels due to thermal expansion, which contributes more than half of the sea level rise in the Indian Ocean. This phenomenon, coupled with changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole, poses significant challenges for monsoon patterns and cyclone formation.
Ocean acidification is another grave concern, with surface pH projected to plummet from above 8.1 to below 7.7 by century’s end. This could have catastrophic consequences for marine ecosystems, particularly for organisms reliant on calcification.
With 40 bordering countries and a third of the global population residing in its vicinity, the Indian Ocean’s changing climate has far-reaching societal and economic implications. Coastal communities, in particular, face heightened vulnerability to weather and climate extremes, making proactive measures imperative to mitigate the impending crisis.
