Kyiv: After extensive negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, aimed at ensuring the safety of shipping in the Black Sea, Ukraine abruptly withdrew from the agreement just before its announcement, as reported by four individuals familiar with the matter to Reuters.
According to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions, the negotiations were facilitated by Turkey following encouragement from the United Nations.
A tentative agreement was reached in March to bolster the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea. Although Ukraine hesitated to formalize the agreement, it had initially consented for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to announce it on March 30, the day before crucial regional elections, the sources disclosed.
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“At the very last minute, Ukraine suddenly pulled out and the deal was scuttled,” stated one of the sources, a sentiment corroborated by three others. Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey have all declined to comment on the matter.
The reasons behind Ukraine’s withdrawal remain unclear. The individuals interviewed by Reuters indicated that they were unaware of the factors that prompted Kyiv’s decision.
In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had expressed concerns about Ukraine’s ability to defend a Black Sea shipping corridor without additional military aid from the United States, particularly along its western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.
These behind-the-scenes negotiations shed light on the discreet diplomatic efforts to encourage dialogue between the conflicting parties, even if initially focused solely on merchant shipping concerns.
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Responding to inquiries about the Reuters report, United Nations Spokesman Stephane Dujarric emphasized, “We still hope that freedom of navigation in the Black Sea will prevail.”
For months, Turkey and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have been endeavoring to facilitate more unhindered merchant shipping in the Black Sea, which has witnessed heightened naval activity since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Black Sea serves as a vital passage for both Russia and Ukraine to transport bulk commodities such as grain, fertilizer, and oil to global markets, although shipping volumes have notably declined since the onset of the conflict.
The draft agreement, seen by Reuters, stipulated that Turkey, as part of its mediation efforts, had brokered agreements with Ukraine and Russia to ensure the free and safe navigation of merchant vessels in the Black Sea, in compliance with the Montreux Convention of the Regime of the Straits.
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This 1936 agreement grants Turkey control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, empowering it to regulate the transit of naval warships while ensuring the free passage of civilian vessels during peacetime and imposing restrictions on non-Black Sea countries’ ships.
Under the nearly-announced agreement, both Moscow and Kyiv would have provided security assurances to merchant vessels in the Black Sea, pledging not to attack, seize, or search them as long as they were either empty or declared non-military cargo.
“These guarantees do not apply to warships, civilian vessels carrying military goods (with the exception of maritime transportation agreed upon by the Parties within the framework of international missions),” the draft agreement specified.
“The Republic of Turkey informs the UN Secretary General that the agreement has been reached and is being implemented through the mediation of the Republic of Turkey,” the draft concluded. “The agreement comes into force upon announcement.”
Turkey and the United Nations had previously mediated the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a pact established in July 2022, facilitating the safe export of nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea.
Russia withdrew from the agreement in July 2023, citing significant obstacles to its food and fertilizer exports.
