New Delhi: India’s economy outpaced analysts’ expectations as its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a robust growth of 8.4% annually in the third quarter (October-December), as revealed by data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday.
The figures for Q1 and Q2 of FY24 have also been revised upwards to 8.2% (from 7.8%) and 8.1% (from 7.6%) respectively.
Despite a median poll of 15 economists conducted by ET projecting a 6.6% growth, the economy exceeded forecasts, with growth ranging from 6% to 7.2% for the quarter ending December. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated a growth rate of 6.5% for the same period.
In this regard, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared his opinion on the X platform (formerly known as Twitter).
The FY24 estimate was also revised upwards to 7.6% from 7%, reflecting optimism. According to an official release, “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 172.90 lakh crore, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6% as compared to 7.0% in 2022-23.”
Contrary to expectations of economic growth falling below 7% due to a sluggish manufacturing sector and weakening consumption, the released figures tell a different story. The manufacturing sector witnessed a growth of 11.6% compared to 14.4% in the previous quarter, while it had contracted by 0.4% in the same period last fiscal.
The agriculture sector contracted by 0.8% this quarter against a growth of 1.6% in Q2. Mining saw a growth of 7.5%, up from 11.1% in the previous quarter.
Key sectors like electricity, public utilities, and construction demonstrated resilience, expanding by 9%, 9.5%, and 6.7% respectively.
India’s robust economic performance is significant amidst global economic dynamics. The government’s first advance estimate projected a growth rate of 7.3% for the current fiscal year, positioning India as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. This growth outlook is particularly noteworthy amidst China’s slowdown and the eurozone narrowly avoiding a technical recession.
Kaushik Das, an economist at Deutsche Bank, emphasized India’s long-term growth potential, foreseeing minimum real GDP growth of 6% to 6.5% and nominal GDP growth of 10% to 11% over the next two decades, surpassing comparable emerging market countries.
